Key factors impacting autonomous transportation
Key Takeaways:
- Autonomy takes collaboration: Multiple point-solutions are needed
- Heavy reliance on new technologies: Systems will be connected by necessity
- Acceptance: Future autonomous transportation relies on us adapting to it
Autonomy has stepped beyond self-driving taxis and lights-out factories. The movement of goods and people is becoming more automated, creating entry points for entrepreneurs tackling the pain points of specific links in the value chain.
Several factors are at play. Specifically, artificial intelligence, advanced connectivity, new compute platforms, and standardized data formats. We can expect leaders to emerge to address all these factors, creating opportunities for first and second movers offering point solutions as a service.
We have precedence for this. Transportation as a service was pioneered by companies in the aerospace industry, offering jet engines on a pay-per-hour model. That shift started in the 1960s and reflected the cost versus reliability of then new turbine jet technology. But the business concept has remained popular long after reliability made it redundant.
According to a market report published by Statista in 2024, the transportation of goods accounts for around 10% of global GDP. Various sources suggest the transportation of people is only just below that figure, around 7%. Overall, transportation in general is one of the fastest-growing sectors worldwide.
New approaches driven by demand are emerging within the transportation sector. The availability of local labor represents a logistical limitation. Business owners are turning to more scalable solutions that leverage automation enabled by technology.
Transportation markets to watch
Automation is already redefining how we think of transportation. Over the next five years, several markets will be further shaped and transformed by autonomy. While artificial intelligence (AI) is a driving force, it is only part of the picture.
A large part of transportation involves the physical movement of assets. We have three main conduits for this movement: land, sea and air.
- Drone-based logistics is expected to see the most aggressive short-term growth. Autonomous drones will provide on-demand delivery, typically same-day but perhaps even one-hour delivery. Given their relatively short range, this will depend on local availability. The movement of goods over longer distances will be a factor. A factor how?
- Aerospace will provide longer-range logistics for drone-based “last mile” delivery. Autonomous flight and unmanned aircraft will drive down the cost of this leg.
- Maritime logistics is already a cost-effective solution for non-urgent or bulk products, However, autonomous ships are expected to improve route efficiency, therefore positively impacting the fuel cost of delivery while also increasing security.
- Rail systems already use autonomy for the movement of passengers. We can expect to see freight corridors emerge, used by autonomous freight trains to cover long distances with less downtime.
Transportation Market Growth – 2025 to 2030
Transportation markets are growing fast, reflecting global demand. Technology is helping to fuel this growth, but it faces challenges in the adoption of autonomous systems. (Sources included in key)Sources for market growth:
Drones: 2025 value $2.1bn. CAGR: 45% Drone Logistics & Transportation Market | Global Market Analysis Report - 2035
Aviation: 2025 value $8.8bn. CAGR: 21.8% Autonomous Aircraft Market Size, Share, Trends & Growth Report, 2030
Maritime: 2025 value $5bn. CAGR 15% Maritime Autonomous Systems Trends and Forecast 2025-2033
Rail: 2025 value $10bn. CAGR 8% Autonomous Trains Market Growth Analysis Report 2025-2034 | AI-Driven Innovations Propel Autonomous Trains into High-Speed and Freight Sectors
Fueling transformation
Several key technologies, aligned horizontally with vertical segments, are driving growth in transportation. A flexible platform approach to harnessing these key technologies can be deployed across multiple application areas, providing OEMs with the scale they need to invest in innovative solutions.
- AI and machine learning models running locally will factor strongly in overall transformation. This extension to IoT is enabled by an existing infrastructure, working collaboratively with hyperscale cloud providers.
- Advanced connectivity, including 5G and non-terrestrial (satellite) based communications and vehicle-to-infrastructure networks, will be needed to orchestrate the overall logistics of autonomous systems. This will be complemented by high-precision GNSS and real-time location systems using ultra-wideband technologies, as well as personal area networking such as Bluetooth and Wi-Fi.
- Compute platforms suitable for autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) and automated guided vehicles (AGVs) will be in demand. Based on advanced integrated processors capable of executing AI efficiently, these platforms will vary significantly but share common architectures.
- Standardization in the data fabric will be essential. Suppliers will provide access to data through application programming interfaces (APIs) based on the RESTful architecture and secure JSON exchanges. APIs may be customer-specific and will provide integration of transport management systems (TMS), enterprise resource planning (ERP) and warehouse management systems (WMS).
Challenges to overcome
Safety is an ever-present concern with autonomous systems, particularly if they operate close to humans. Drones will require dedicated airspace free from conventional air traffic, but they will also necessarily occupy airspace above private dwellings and public spaces. Similar concerns will exist around autonomous shipping and freight trains.
Safety certification for unmanned and autonomous vehicles will encompass collision avoidance and the management of operational risk. Removing humans from the control loop entirely may not be feasible in the short term. National and international agreements would lead to harmonization and promote adoption.
Data transfer across operators must also be approved for data security and operational safety. Hybrid networks using cellular and satellite nodes will need to be approved by the relevant bodies, which may slow adoption. Data sovereignty and privacy regulations will also need to be strengthened to allow the exchange of data between public and private networks. Cybersecurity regulations, which vary by region, must be observed across all geographical locations.
Coordinating freight tracking across multiple transport infrastructures will require further development of digital twin technology, observing interoperability through agreed standards.
Logistics changing the landscape
This level of change cannot happen without considering and preparing for the effects. Consumers must accept and trust that autonomous vehicles will be capable of performing last-mile urban delivery of their goods without increasing the risk of theft, damage or delivery errors. Personal biometric data to facilitate voice or facial recognition may need to be shared with delivery companies.
Warehouse design may need to adapt to the greater prevalence but inevitable limitations of AMRs and AGVs. These changes must be made in a human-centric way, even though there will be fewer human operatives working in the area. Eventually, the transition may be complete, and some warehouses will be fully operated by autonomous machines, at which point their design will be optimized entirely for that scenario.
While efficiency and sustainability will increase, it can only come with a willing shift in the workforce. Maintenance of automated systems will require trained operatives and new skills, industrial and urban areas will need to adapt, and the supply of automated systems must increase. These issues may lead to some uncertainty around the speed of transition, but the direction of travel seems clear.
To find out how Avnet’s core competencies in design, business migration and supply chain services can help you prepare and benefit from the shift in transportation, talk to your account representative.
